Is South Africa's manufacturing sector in terminal decline?

South Africa's manufacturing sector contributed nearly 19% of GDP in the late 1990s, underpinned by industrial policy ambitions and a post-apartheid growth push. But deindustrialisation, energy crises, infrastructure decay, and global competition steadily eroded that base — driving the share below 12% by the early 2020s. The sector is therefore on a structural long-term decline, with no current policy trajectory sufficient to reverse the trend before 2026.