Each local election has accurately foreshadowed the ANC's next national collapse
ANC share of votes in South African local and national elections, 2016–2024 (%; a 30% local result in 2026 would signal a new floor in 2029)
−17.3pp
ANC national vote decline, 2019 to 2024
30%
warning threshold: the level to watch in 2026
National election
Local election
30% warning threshold
Each of the last two local elections has served as an accurate early-warning system for the ANC's national result: the 2016 vote — where the party lost the metros — presaged a slide to 57.5% nationally in 2019, and the 2021 local result of 45.6% correctly signalled a further collapse to 40.2% in 2024. But the ANC's 2026 local share could reveal the rate of decline that is now most contested: if the party falls below roughly 30% in the local vote, it would signal a genuine floor test is coming in 2029 — and, potentially, that the DA's own share of the national vote is approaching a level that reshapes the coalition calculus entirely.
Daily Maverick · Source: Supplied data; Electoral Commission of South Africa
