All models point to a strong El Niño peaking in December 2026
Sea-surface temperature anomaly, °C; multi-model ensemble (MME) versus 12 individual centre forecasts, April 2026 – March 2027
Multi-model ensemble (MME)
Individual model forecasts (Oct '26 onwards)
All 12 forecast centres agree that this El Niño will strengthen through late 2026, but the spread between the most aggressive model (Pune: 4.8°C peak) and the most conservative (Washington: 3.0°C) at December is 1.8°C — uncertainty that translates directly into risk for Southern African rainfall, agricultural output, and commodity markets.
Daily Maverick · Source: Supplied data; multi-model ensemble and individual centre forecasts
