A tax windfall narrows SA's budget deficit faster than Treasury forecast
Main budget deficit as % of GDP
February 2026 Budget Review
Investec forecast, October 2026
0.5pp
narrowing of 2026/27 deficit
vs February forecast
R50bn+
estimated tax revenue
windfall driving improvement
South Africa's economy grew well below Treasury's February forecast, yet a precious-metals-driven tax windfall pushed revenues sharply ahead of projections. The result is a main budget deficit that beats the February target by half a percentage point — a rare case of the fiscus outperforming despite weaker growth.