Earth's temperature in 2026 is brushing the 1.5°C danger threshold — and El Niño hasn't peaked yet

Monthly global mean near-surface temperature anomaly (°C above 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline), January–September 2026, with key climate events

426.8 ppm

Atmospheric CO₂ in 2025
53% above pre-industrial levels

national disasters declared
in South Africa in 2026

2nd national disaster Western Cape / Eastern Cape storms; 10+ killed, May 2026

2026 monthly anomaly

1.5°C Paris threshold

2024 annual mean (1.55°C — record year)

2025 annual mean (1.43°C)

Key events — 2026

South Africa · January

Limpopo & Mpumalanga floods — first national disaster

30 people killed; 400 mm of rain fell on Limpopo in under a week; $240 million in damage; 600 Kruger National Park visitors evacuated.

South Africa · May

Western & Eastern Cape storms — second national disaster

301 mm of rain in the Garden Route; 100 km/h winds in Cape Town; 10+ killed; all Western Cape schools closed; six provinces affected.

South Africa · October

KwaZulu-Natal heatwave

Dangerous heat blanketed northwestern KZN on 11–13 October; extreme discomfort simultaneously recorded across the southern Eastern Cape.

Global · June–August

Ocean temperatures break records

Global sea-surface temperatures were the highest or second highest on record for June, July and August; 2026 on track for a tenth consecutive year of record ocean heat content.

Global · 2026 season

Polar sea ice at historic lows

Antarctic sea ice reached its third-lowest winter peak on record; Arctic sea ice was at its lowest or second-lowest on record for the same period.

Global · 2026

Sea level reaches satellite-era record

Global mean sea level set its highest point since satellite records began in 1993, compounding coastal flood risk worldwide as El Niño intensifies.

South Africa's cascade of floods, storms and heat in 2026 unfolded as global temperatures crept to within a fraction of a degree of the Paris Agreement's most ambitious limit — and El Niño's full warming effect has yet to arrive. The two national disasters declared before winter ended underscore how little margin remains between current climate conditions and the threshold scientists warned would bring irreversible harm.