GDP rebasing lowers South Africa's debt peak by 3.8 percentage points
Gross loan debt as a percentage of GDP, 2018/19–2034/35 (projected)
2026 MTBPS (pre-rebase)
2026 MTBPS (rebased GDP)
3.8pp
reduction in peak debt ratio after rebasing
2025/26
projected peak year — both old and rebased series
South Africa's gross loan debt appeared to peak at 78.4% of GDP in 2025/26, but a statistical rebasing of GDP — which lifts the denominator — reduces that peak to 74.6%, cutting every year's ratio by roughly 3–4 percentage points. The trajectory itself is unchanged: debt stabilises after 2025/26 and declines steadily, but the rebased figures make the consolidation task look meaningfully less severe.
Daily Maverick · Source: National Treasury, Media Statement: Revisions to Official GDP Improve Key Fiscal Metrics, 5 November 2026
