El Niño splits Southern Africa's 2026/27 rains: a drying south against a wetter north

Northern areas — DRC, Tanzania, and northern Angola — are backed by a 40–65% probability of above-normal rainfall, sustained by ENSO dynamics that favour the region. But the below-normal drier signal intensifies and expands northward into Zambia and Malawi by January–March 2027, narrowing the food-security buffer precisely at the peak of the crop-growing season.